The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Saudi Arabia this week to initiate negotiations with Russia about the war in Ukraine.
European leaders have demanded a place at the negotiating table, but Donald Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has said that European leaders should be "consulted" but not participate in the negotiations.
It will have very large consequences. The most important thing is that the US has simultaneously demanded that there should be no American troops to ensure a peace agreement, but it should be European. The probability of it happening decreases if Europe is not at the table, says Oscar Jonsson, a military scientist at the Defense University.
Europe gets the blame
In theory, the US and Russia could agree on something that is completely unfeasible, he says.
Then the Trump administration can say that "we achieved our goal, stopped the war in 100 days", and if it doesn't hold, it's Europe that gets the blame for not doing "enough".
Decisive for Ukraine are security guarantees to prevent the next war, which likely requires foreign peacekeeping troops. In practice, it could involve tens of thousands of European soldiers.
It would be extremely straining for European NATO, says Jonsson.
He also notes that the US cannot force Ukraine to accept anything.
If there's something on the table that is significantly worse for Ukraine than the current situation, then Ukraine can think that we'll hold out and try a little more.
Ceasefire "more realistic"
Kyiv's involvement in this week's negotiations is still unclear. American officials have indicated that Ukrainian representatives will participate, but a Ukrainian government source tells Politico that Kyiv has not been informed and has no plans to send a delegation.
Ukraine understands that they have better opportunities to get something good if Europe/EU is involved, says Jonsson.
Kjell Engelbrekt, a professor at the Defense University, believes it is highly unlikely that the parties can reach an agreement in a short time.
"A ceasefire is significantly more realistic than a peace agreement. The parties are extremely far apart in their initial positions", he writes in an email.
