There has been a long-standing opposition between the US and China regarding the security situation surrounding, among other things, Taiwan and the South China Sea. Now, the contact between the great powers is being strongly restricted due to the ongoing trade war.
It does not contribute to building trust within a military relationship, says Björn Jerdén, head of the National Knowledge Centre on China at the Foreign Policy Institute.
The fact that trust between the countries is decreasing increases the risk of misunderstandings. Taking very far-reaching measures in the trade area can also lower the threshold for harder measures in other areas, he fears.
I do not want to play up the risk when it comes to the military area yet, but I believe that if this continues, it is at least a possible scenario.
Mutual Dependence
There is a theory that the mutual trade dependence between the US and China would make it less likely for military conflicts to escalate. But if the tariff conflict continues to escalate, the mutual dependence between the countries will decrease.
Besides the trade conflict and the uncertainties surrounding the military aspect, there are also other relationships, such as in economics and technology.
There are American investments in China, there are Chinese companies listed on the stock exchanges in the US, there are American funds that have ownership in China, there is still extensive research exchange. There are many aspects that could be drawn in and affected by this increased conflict situation, says Björn Jerdén.
More Prepared China
Last time Donald Trump was the President of the US, China came to the negotiating table. This time, the country has responded – quickly and harshly – to the US tariffs and perceives itself to be in a better position this time.
But Björn Jerdén believes that China would rather negotiate.
Of course, it should be conditions that China can accept. I do not think they perceive that Trump has offered so far.
But which country has the most to lose from the trade war is difficult to predict.
I do not think there is a clear winner in this. This will be costly for both parties if it continues.
