Ukraine Faces Intensified Russian Drone and Missile Attacks: Is Air Defense Enough?

Russia's nightly bombing raids against civilian targets in Ukraine are only increasing. With thousands of drones and missiles at supersonic speed, the Kremlin has escalated the violence against civilian targets far from the battlefield. The idea is to wear down the psychological defense of the population, says Olena Bilousova, defense researcher at Kyiv School of Economics.

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Ukraine Faces Intensified Russian Drone and Missile Attacks: Is Air Defense Enough?
Photo: Yevhen Titov/AP/TT

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First, the air raid alarm sounds. A ominous howl that rips the inhabitants out of their sleep and warns that death is approaching somewhere in the sky.

Then come the drones, sometimes hundreds. Many of them do not carry explosive devices but serve as bait for the air defense, so that the drones that are actually equipped with bombs can more easily penetrate the defense and reach their targets – hospitals, schools, residential buildings.

But the night's attack has only just begun. With the air defense occupied, the attack's real heavyweights can make their entrance – the missiles. At low altitude and supersonic speed, they are virtually impossible to defend against. They also strike civilian targets and cause massive destruction.

There is no straightforward way to defend ourselves against the Russian attacks, but we are learning all the time. We study maps and see the drones' and missiles' trajectories and analyze the tactics.

And each drone has an antenna that we can tamper with, says Olena Bilousova.

"Hard to live normally"

She means that the escalated Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities serve three purposes. To wear down the defense, to bomb critical infrastructure, and to exhaust the population.

It has a direct impact on the population. It is hard to live a normal life when you are woken up by air raid alarms and explosions every night and need to take yourself to a shelter.

The Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have since the beginning of summer become more intense and frequent. According to the Ukrainian air force, Russia has attacked Ukrainian cities with over 18,000 drones and over 600 missiles since June 1.

The attacks are taking a toll on the Ukrainian air defense, which has had to adapt to daily attacks.

The latest tactic we have is drones that intercept incoming projectiles. They are cheap and cost around $5,000, much cheaper than the drones we are being attacked with. It gives us a favorable cost asymmetry and is something we are working to scale up, says Olena Bilousova.

Costs enormous sums

And the cost of the defense may prove to have a decisive significance for the defense of Ukrainian cities. The Russian attacks cost enormous sums of money.

An Iranian Shahed drone can cost $200,000, a Russian-made one around $50,000. The most expensive missiles can cost over $10 million. Then think about what an attack with hundreds of drones and tens of missiles costs.

And although the attacks are grinding down the already war-weary Ukrainian population, Olena Bilousova believes that the Russian attacks are also counterproductive.

With each attack, we become more determined to fight for our lives and our country. If their goal is for us to ask our government to stop the war, they will not succeed.

She believes that the attacks will continue.

October is usually the time when we start heating up our homes because it gets cold. I think we will see attacks on our heating systems then.

Moreover, Russia has changed tactics and sees these extended attacks on infrastructure as successful.

Blew up pension office

She gives as an example that Russia recently blew up an office in Donetsk where people go to pick up their pensions. In the attack, 24 pensioners died.

It shows that civilian targets are legitimate for Russia. But there are many such examples.

In the discussion about upcoming peace talks, the idea is sometimes floated that Ukraine would give up areas occupied by Russia in exchange for peace. But Olena Bilousova does not think much of that idea.

No agreement with the regime in the Kremlin will lead to peace, since there are never enough concessions for dictatorships.

At the same time, Ukraine is approaching an acute shortage of air defense ammunition. As Russia increases the pressure on Ukraine, the US is reducing its arms deliveries. Several times, the country's president Volodymyr Zelenskyj has urged increased military support to be able to defend Ukrainian cities against the Russian bombardment.

Several European leaders have heeded Zelenskyj's appeal. By buying American weapons and giving them to Ukraine, they have for the time being given Ukraine a temporary – and very fragile – reprieve.

Has no interest

The question is how long Ukraine can resist.

So far, we are resisting, despite losses. But the underlying problem is that Russia has no interest in ending the war, so I do not see that the attacks would stop in the foreseeable future, says Olena Bilousova.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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