Armed groups' surprising attack on the regime-controlled province of Aleppo, with the extremist movement Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) at the forefront, takes place after several years of relative calm in war-torn Syria.
So far, President Bashar al-Assad has lost control over around 50 localities in the area, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Over 240 people are reported to have been killed, including civilians. For the regime's most important allies – Russia and Iran – the main focus is on other wars and conflicts.
A key question now is who initiated the attack – or who supported and blessed it, according to Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI).
It's likely that Turkey is involved in some way, he says.
Negotiation tool?
All groups participating in the fighting in northwestern Syria are supported by Turkey or are dependent on Turkey in various ways, notes Lund. HTS is an independent movement, while the other groups are more or less lego troops for Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's interests in northern Syria are about taking over Kurdish-dominated areas near Aleppo – and thus getting rid of the groups that are or are claimed to be linked to the terrorist-stamped guerrilla movement PKK.
For this, the recent offensive could be a means, according to Lund. Russian airstrikes are reported to have already been carried out and will likely be carried out on a larger scale, but Russia is not as ready for attacks on the Syrian regime as before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Aron Lund.
Turkey's room for maneuver in Syria has increased since Russia does not have the military resources it had earlier, he says.
There may be negotiations between, for example, Turkey and Russia or perhaps Turkey, Russia, and Iran.
"Unlikely" that Aleppo falls
At the same time, Erdogan wants to avoid a larger escalation, including a new refugee crisis, notes Lund. That it would go so far that Aleppo completely falls under the control of the rebel groups is highly unlikely, he assesses.
Everything is very unclear still, you'll have to wait and see how it goes for the rebels. But I think there will be some bombing and then negotiations.
It could also be HTS that has taken the initiative. Their purpose is to fight the Assad regime, and this is what they have wanted to do all the time.
