According to Robert Boije, we can still expect sharp turns on the stock exchange.
There is still a trade war between the USA and China, it has not paused. That trade makes up a significant part of the world economy, which alone can make the stock exchange shake, he says.
An image shared by Maria Landeborn, senior strategist at Danske Bank:
There is extensive trade between the USA and China, and there are several possible consequences for us. One is that certain European goods become more attractive when Chinese goods become twice as expensive. But tariffs between the USA and China are still generally a risk for the world, she says.
Unclear in the long term
At the same time as President Donald Trump announced a pause against countries that have not introduced retaliatory tariffs against the USA, he announced that tariffs against China will be increased to 125 percent.
Besides, the uncertainty is still great around future tariff policy.
As long as we do not have a definitive answer from the American administration about what will apply in the long term, the uncertainty will remain great, says Boije and continues:
The feeling now is that every morning when you wake up, you do not know what will come from Donald Trump.
He describes the stock exchange as "nervous" for the time being. The slightest statement can lead to a strong swing.
The general tariffs of 10 percent that now also apply to, for example, the EU contribute to the uncertainty.
It is not good, but clearly more manageable than the higher tariffs, says Boije.
Trump's pain threshold
According to Maria Landeborn, the stock exchanges will hardly rush back to the levels they were at before the USA's various tariff announcements.
Today we get big increases, but how it looks in a week or two depends on whether he (Trump) starts to conclude trade agreements, how they look, what happens between the USA and China, she says.
The most positive news in this is perhaps that Trump's 90-day pause signals that he actually cares about market reactions, Landeborn means.
In line with the world's stock exchanges having fallen and Trump having stuck to his starting point, there have been uncertainties about how far he is willing to go and whether the reactions even play a role in the White House. Yesterday's announcement suggests that they do.
That in itself is a relief for the market – to know that even Trump has a pain threshold, she says.
