National conservative Nawrocki went on together with Warsaw's mayor Rafal Trzaskowski to the next round of the presidential election, already unexpectedly even - the right-wing candidate got 29.5 percent and liberal Trzaskowski got 31.4 percent.
This despite the relatively young Nawrocki, 42 years old, having been behind in the opinion polls for a long time, and despite constant new revelations about his connections to the underworld at home in "Triple City", Sopot-Gdansk-Gdynia by the Baltic Sea.
Drove the sex trade
On the internet, pictures are circulating where he happily poses with grossly criminal individuals. And witnesses tell according to Polish media about how he, as a security guard, had a driving role in the sex trade at Grand Hotel in Sopot.
It's astonishing for a Swede that all this runs off him like water off a goose, says author and Poland expert Peter Johnsson to TT over the phone from Warsaw.
That Nawrocki, before the decisive round, was even can also be explained by voter disappointment over Trzaskowski's liberal, EU-friendly stance since the government shift in 2023. The Citizens' Coalition, which formed the government, has not, for example, fulfilled the election promise to repeal the brutally strict abortion law that sparks international outrage and is one of Poland's most divisive issues.
Military power
Leaders across Europe and beyond are waiting anxiously for the result. If Nawrocki wins, USA's President Donald Trump will get a new heavy ally in the EU - Poland is the Union's fifth most populous country and constitutes one of Europe's greater powers.
Together with Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico, Nawrocki can counter continued generous support to Ukraine.
However, in the category of disputed - and troublesome - right-wing leaders, Nawrocki, according to Johnsson, is of "another caliber". He illustrates with the 42-year-old's low support in his home turf.
Nawrocki is from Gdansk, and he got around 16 percent of the votes there last time. 16.
They know he's a crook, period.
In the underworld
Instead, it is in the poor eastern Poland, where many, according to Johnsson, mostly follow propaganda media, that can lift Nawrocki to victory.
Peter Johnsson sees dangers in that scenario, for the EU and the world, but primarily for Poland.
Since he has one foot in the criminal underworld, the risk is that he will be exposed to demands from that world.
The country is primarily governed by the prime minister and the government. There, Poland changed direction in the 2023 election, when a left-leaning and EU-friendly coalition led by Donald Tusk could take over, after eight years of hard-right rule by the PIS party. The president is elected in separate elections, and it is that which is now being settled.
The head of state has some influence over foreign policy and also has a great opportunity to stop and block legislation. That opportunity has the now outgoing right-wing president, PIS-supported Andrzej Duda, used to put spokes in the wheel for Tusk's government.
