Bergqvist sees no signs that any new cracks would have arisen between the countries during the talks and would be "extremely surprised" if the US President Donald Trump does not agree to some form of extension of the tariff pause.
The reason we get different messages is that the US side wants to put the decision with Trump. They want to send a clear signal that he has the final say.
Devastating for Sweden
Not agreeing on a pause would be devastating for both countries - and also for Sweden.
The US and China are in the same boat as they are dependent on each other. The US is dependent on China's rare earth metals and capital, and China is dependent on the US market. It is just as important for both of them to agree.
A return to the situation before the pause is not desirable for anyone.
It affects the economy globally. And Sweden, which is export-dependent, is hit hard. A return would also cause the stock market to fall, which we saw in the spring that Trump is not completely deaf to.
Some stress may be visible
Before Trump gives a message about the pause, Bergqvist believes that some stress may be visible on the market - but there will be no major reactions.
This was the main scenario, and most people assume an extended pause.
The fact that the negotiations are delayed - more than with, for example, the EU and Japan - has its explanations.
We have two superpowers that are now competing for global strategic leadership. It's not just about the economy, but also about strategic leadership in technology and defense policy. There is much more at stake in these negotiations.
