The Warning: The Most Serious Situation Since October 7

After the rocket attack that killed twelve children in the Golan Heights on Saturday, the risk of a large-scale war in the Middle East is once again acute. Experts are talking about the most serious situation since Hamas' attack on Israel last autumn – despite neither Israel nor Hezbollah really being believed to want a full-scale military conflict.

» Published:

The Warning: The Most Serious Situation Since October 7
Photo: Leo Correa/AP/TT

Share this article

The situation between Israel and the Hamas-allied and Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah in Lebanon has escalated again after a suspected Hezbollah rocket killed at least twelve children in the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel.

I think this is an extremely serious situation, possibly the most serious since October 7, says Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI).

Everything indicates that it was a Hezbollah rocket that hit the Golan, but it was a mistake. And that's what everyone has been afraid of. The mistake.

Now it's largely up to Israel how they choose to handle it.

Free Hands

On Sunday, the Israeli security cabinet met. They then decided to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant free hands to decide how and when Israel will respond to the attack.

From the most hardline on the fringe of the Israeli government, the tone is high. The country's Education Minister Yoav Kisch writes on the X platform that he expects the government to respond with "full force", even if it means full-scale war.

The Islamist movement Hezbollah functions as a "state within a state" in Lebanon and has at least as much military power as the country's army and a strong role in politics and social life.

Will Respond to the Attack

Analysts have long warned that Lebanon, led by Hezbollah, could be the powder keg that triggers a large-scale war in the region. Anders Ekholm, lieutenant colonel and researcher at the Defense University, says that Israel has the capacity to enter Lebanon and will respond to the attack.

But my assessment is that they don't want to initiate a ground offensive, he says.

They want to finish in Gaza first, to have as much freedom of action as possible with as many resources as possible.

According to Aron Lund, Hezbollah also doesn't want a large-scale war in the region.

On the other hand, they have an interest in keeping the conflict alive. They want to drain Israel's resources to force a ceasefire in Gaza, and it's the same with other groups in the region, such as the Houthi rebels.

Since the war between the terrorist-listed Hamas and Israel broke out after Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel on October 7 last year, shelling across the Israeli-Lebanese border has occurred almost daily.

The Golan Heights, located on Israel's border with Syria, have a strategically important military location. During the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel took large parts of the area from Syria, and annexed an area of around 1,200 square kilometers in 1981.

Only the US has recognized Israel's sovereignty over the area, a decision made in 2019 by then-President Donald Trump.

Tens of thousands of Syrians and Palestinians fled or were driven out of the Golan Heights following Israel's conquest. But around 23,000 Arabs, mostly Druze, still live in the area. Since Israel's conquest, approximately the same number of Israeli settlers have moved to the area. The settlements are illegal according to international law.

Tags

Author

TTT
By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

More news

Trump Sues New York Times for $15 Billion in Defamation Case

Trump Sues New York Times for $15 Billion in Defamation Case

Trump Urges Orbán to Stop Russian Oil Imports Amid EU Sanctions Talks

Trump Urges Orbán to Stop Russian Oil Imports Amid EU Sanctions Talks

Over 50 Killed in Gang Attacks North of Haiti's Capital

Over 50 Killed in Gang Attacks North of Haiti's Capital

Russian Attacks in Ukraine Leave Two Dead and Nine Injured

Russian Attacks in Ukraine Leave Two Dead and Nine Injured

Nigerian Chef Hilda Baci Sets World Record with Jollof Rice

Nigerian Chef Hilda Baci Sets World Record with Jollof Rice

Israel Begins Ground Offensive in Gaza City, Sources Report

Israel Begins Ground Offensive in Gaza City, Sources Report

White House Vows Action Against Left-Wing Extremism After Kirk's Death

White House Vows Action Against Left-Wing Extremism After Kirk's Death

US Dismisses Israeli Attacks on Qatar Amid Tensions

US Dismisses Israeli Attacks on Qatar Amid Tensions

Trump Deploys National Guard to Memphis Amid Crime Concerns

Trump Deploys National Guard to Memphis Amid Crime Concerns

Trump Announces US Attack on Venezuela Narcotics Boat

Trump Announces US Attack on Venezuela Narcotics Boat

UN Reports Over 250 Journalists Killed in Gaza Conflict

UN Reports Over 250 Journalists Killed in Gaza Conflict

Drone Incident Over Polish Presidential Palace Leads to Arrests

Drone Incident Over Polish Presidential Palace Leads to Arrests

British Fighter Jets Join NATO Air Defense in Poland

British Fighter Jets Join NATO Air Defense in Poland

Spain Criticizes Israel Amid Protests and Government Actions

Spain Criticizes Israel Amid Protests and Government Actions

Former Soldier Faces Trial for 1972 Bloody Sunday Killings

Former Soldier Faces Trial for 1972 Bloody Sunday Killings

Channel 4 to Air Special on Trump's False Claims During UK Visit

Channel 4 to Air Special on Trump's False Claims During UK Visit

Starmer Criticizes Musk's Speech as Dangerous and Inflammatory

Starmer Criticizes Musk's Speech as Dangerous and Inflammatory

FBI: DNA Links Suspect to Charlie Kirk's Murder

FBI: DNA Links Suspect to Charlie Kirk's Murder

Qatar to Review Diplomatic and Economic Ties with Israel

Qatar to Review Diplomatic and Economic Ties with Israel

Over 300 Korean Workers Flown Home on Korean Air Charter After Georgia Detention

Over 300 Korean Workers Flown Home on Korean Air Charter After Georgia Detention