"It cannot be ruled out that we will end up back in that type of scenario. And it is wise to take that into account when planning your finances," says Johan Almenberg about the risk of sharp interest rate hikes.
FI has scheduled a meeting with the banks about the mortgage market on Thursday, according to the FI manager.
The tip for worried borrowers is to be cautious.
"If you want to influence it yourself, it could mean borrowing less. It could also be about what buffers you have as a borrower to ride out the storm," he tells TT. "When you live in an uncertain world, it's wise to take into account that things don't always turn out as you think. After all, we've recently experienced a period where we had rapid interest rate increases while the economy slowed down," he adds.
Great responsibility
According to Almenberg, the banks have a major responsibility for managing this development.
"Banks must ensure that credit checks are up to standard, and that they are involved in safeguarding a healthy amortization culture," he says.
But he believes the softer amortization requirements and the increase in the mortgage ceiling - which were introduced in April this year - will have limited effects.
"Other factors may be more important, not least the interest rate situation," he says.
Swedish households have long been generally highly indebted and interest-rate sensitive, with many variable-rate mortgages. But Sweden has started the year with unusually low inflation - which dampens the risk of interest rate hikes.
I think the key interest rate will be raised several times.
Representatives of the Swedish Central Bank are unclear about whether it might be appropriate to raise the key interest rate this year, while most economists believe it will not be time until 2027. However, among traders in the fixed income market - that is, banks and large funds - things are clearly pointing upwards. They are expecting three increases of 0.25 percentage points each - a total of 0.75 percentage points - by the end of 2027.
Lenders in the Swedish mortgage market have already begun to adapt on a broad front. Both fixed and variable mortgage rates have begun to adjust upwards recently.
The interest cost would increase by SEK 22,500 per year for a three-million mortgage if it were to be increased by 0.75 percentage points - if the effects of the interest deduction are ignored.
"It's too early to say how this will turn out. We will follow this closely," says Almenberg.
The fixed income market is currently characterized by inflation concerns. Traders at banks and funds have therefore begun to take into account that central banks around the world may soon be pressured into a series of interest rate hikes - despite weak growth - which has created strong upward pressure on market interest rates.
Higher policy rates normally have a dampening effect on inflation, via reduced credit and thus reduced demand in an economy.
The inflation concerns stem from global price effects from the major supply disruptions that have been created - especially in terms of oil, gas, fertilizer, but also other important input goods - in the wake of the Iran war and the essentially closed Strait of Hormuz.
