ÖB Michael Claesson has warned several times that Russia may test NATO, for example by occupying a smaller, uninhabited island in the Baltic Sea.
One purpose may be to see whether NATO countries can stick together and agree to invoke the defense guarantee in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty in such a situation. That requires a political decision by the North Atlantic Council (NAC).
But while we wait for that, we are not sitting around waiting for the collective decision to be made, says Skoog Haslum.
She emphasizes that all NATO members have a national responsibility to plan for and prevent attacks on their own territory.
And if we have a neighboring country that is vulnerable, then we will support that country, says Skoog Haslum.
Trusting NATO
She points out that Sweden has agreements with Finland that also apply outside peacetime, and cooperates with several other countries. In addition, there is the EU's defense clause.
Skoog Haslum is confident that NATO would act quickly in such a pressured situation to activate Article 5.
If we didn't trust that, we wouldn't trust NATO at all.
Skoog Haslum assesses that the probability today is low that Russia would dare to test NATO by seizing a piece of territory.
But given how turbulent and unpredictable the global situation is, what I say today could completely change in a week, she says.
I am very keen that we be prepared.
“Is phenomenal”
The Defense Committee writes in its recent report about recurring sabotage, cyberattacks, GPS interference, violations and other incidents in the Baltic Sea region with various kinds of Russian connections.
In the coming years, Russia is expected to stick to such hybrid operations in order not to exceed the threshold for armed attack.
For the Armed Forces, it is important to always have a good situational picture around the Baltic Sea.
I would say that our situation is phenomenal, says Skoog Haslum.
She states that it is the responsibility of the Armed Forces to be prepared for an escalation or unexpected action.
Then it is always difficult to predict exactly what will happen.
Confrontation risk?
The Russian Navy's activities have increased in the Baltic Sea since it began escorting merchant ships in its shadow fleet.
Skoog Haslum is not worried that it will lead to confrontations, as long as laws and rules are followed in international and Swedish waters.
If you do that, then there shouldn't really be any risks.
In the English Channel, a Russian frigate has fired warning shots at a civilian yacht that came too close.
Skoog Haslum points out that warning shots are part of the warning chain used by all warships.
But it is certainly an incredibly rare event, she says.
Her advice if you happen to be sailing near a Russian warship is to just follow the applicable maritime traffic regulations.
So I'm not saying that just because you see a warship, you should have any particular fear of it.
