Despite the tensions in the Middle East, the threat from Russia is still considered the most serious for Swedish security, according to Thomas Nilsson.
He emphasizes that Russia considers itself to be in a strategic conflict with the West, and that Sweden has become "even more a part of the West" after the NATO entry over a year ago.
Russia has time and time again shown that it is prepared to use military violence to achieve its political goals – and hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers in Ukraine have not deterred.
There is what we call a Russia crisis, says Thomas Nilsson.
It is systematic and it is long-term. There are no signs that we will solve it in our generation.
New bases
A clear Russian goal is to destabilize and weaken the West, and this is done, among other things, through hybrid warfare.
The Chief of Defense sees an increased Russian risk appetite and points, among other things, to sabotage, murder plans and attacks on industries in Europe. Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states are among those who have been hardest hit.
But we in Sweden must always assume that the same type of sabotage activities can also be directed against us, says Nilsson.
In Sweden, there is, among other things, a threat against deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine. In addition, cyber attacks are ongoing around the clock every day of the week.
At the same time, Russia has made decisions on several new military bases in Sweden's vicinity. The Defense Staff expects them to be filled with soldiers and equipment when the war in Ukraine ends, or perhaps earlier if there is something that can be hastened.
It will be an increased Russian military presence in our direct vicinity. We must relate to that.
Misjudged Russian invasion
Recently, the Defense Staff received criticism in a government inquiry for having misjudged the run-up to Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Thomas Nilsson emphasizes that several things have been corrected since then. He says that history is full of what one could call intelligence failures.
Was this a failure?
I would probably say that it has been part of such a failure. What is important to me is that we have learned from it.
The Defense Staff is also following developments in the Middle East, and warns that Iran may attack outside the region and support terror, even against Sweden. However, the risk of terrorist attacks is not currently considered to have increased in a way that motivates a higher terror threat level.
