Growth this year will stop at 0.9 percent, according to the new forecast. It is a significant deterioration compared to the 2.1 percent that the government counted on in connection with the spring proposal.
There has been a lot happening since our last forecast. Liberation day, American tariffs that have gone up and down. In addition, we have had a tremendous escalation in the Middle East. All of this naturally affects the world economy and the geopolitical tensions that exist have economic consequences, says Svantesson.
We do not know what happens in the Middle East. It is clear that it is a troublesome factor if it is the case that oil prices would rise in the future. It is an uncertainty to take into account.
Bleak households
At home, it is Swedish households that are holding back their consumption and pulling down growth. Swedish companies are also cautious with investments due to the uncertain situation.
Despite the bleak forecast for 2025, the government expects a powerful turnaround next year - a growth of 2.6 percent. But it is a highly uncertain figure.
It can of course go better, but it can also get worse considering what happens in the world, says Svantesson.
She believes that income increases and interest rate cuts can contribute to increased confidence in the future among Swedes.
There may also be a need to strengthen households, especially with lower incomes, she says.
In September, the government will present its final budget before the election year 2026. There may therefore be support for households and companies. But how large the reform space is, Svantesson will return to in August when a new forecast is presented.
Already now, however, it is clear that there are many expenses competing for space. The defense is being strongly expanded, as is the prison service, and the finance minister promises that welfare will not be prioritized down.
High unemployment
Another uncertainty factor is the development on the labor market.
It seems that the labor market has stabilized somewhat, but unemployment is far, far too high, says Svantesson.
Unemployment is expected to reach a peak of 8.7 percent this year and then fall back to 8.4 percent in 2026. This can be compared to 8.6 percent and 8.2 percent in the forecast in the spring.
