The inflation rate of 0.7 percent, as measured by the CPIF, was in line with expectations. The new figure compares with 1.3 percent inflation in June.
Energy prices fell sharply in July, which contributed to the lower inflation rate according to the CPI and CPIF, says Mikael Nordin, price statistician at Statistics Sweden.
The unusually low inflation is affected, among other things, by the temporary tax cut on fuel and the government subsidy for monthly public transport passes that was introduced on July 1. But the temporary VAT cut on food also has an impact.
"Inflationary pressures are low and highly dependent on the government's tax policy. Excluding this, it would have been closer to the inflation target of 2 percent," says Susanne Spector, chief economist at Danske Bank.
SBAB does a similar analysis:
"When we calculate the underlying trend in inflation adjusted for these temporary effects and also the strongly varying energy prices, the result shows that the underlying inflationary pressure is instead slightly above the Swedish Central Bank's target," says Robert Boije, chief economist at SBAB.
The Swedish Central Bank's inflation target is CPIF inflation - where the effects of mortgage interest rates have been removed - of 2.0 percent.
Commodity prices surprise
What stands out in the figures, according to Danske Bank, is that commodity prices are increasing clearly more than expected.
This can be explained by the fact that spring's disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected supply and triggered higher commodity prices, says Susanne Spector.
Factors obscuring visibility
Alexandra Stråberg, chief economist at Länsförsäkringar, in turn warns that we are now seeing the seemingly low inflation rate through a fog that hides temporary tax cuts that will disappear, upcoming higher food prices as a result of extreme weather globally, and an unstable situation in the Middle East that could result in continued high oil and gas prices.
"The tax cuts have helped us, but we are likely to face increased inflation going forward. Many political measures will be carried over," she says.
Susanne Spector also warns of increased inflation risk that the Swedish Central Bank will be forced to curb.
We have not yet seen the full effect of supply disruptions and our forecast is that the Swedish Central Bank will raise interest rates in the autumn, she says.
Facts: The inflation rate fell
The preliminary CPI inflation rate for July 2026 was 0.2 percent, down from 0.7 percent in June.
The preliminary inflation rate according to the CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest) fell from 1.3 percent in June to 0.7 percent in July.
CPIF measures how prices increase without taking into account changes in mortgage interest rates.
