Sweden moves up from the bottom in the EU

Indeed, the Swedish economy is still only seventh from the bottom in terms of growth in the EU in 2024, with an expected increase of only 0.3 percent this year. However, it is slightly better than the 0.2 percent the Commission predicted in the spring and winter, and has therefore moved Sweden up three steps in the bottom list. Now, Estonia has instead taken over the bottom spot that Sweden had until the winter.

For 2025 and 2026, a Swedish growth rate of 1.8 and 2.6 percent, respectively, is expected.

"Consumption is expected to pick up in 2025 and remain strong in 2026, given the backdrop of falling interest rates, low inflation, and a gradual recovery in the labor market," it says, among other things, in the EU Commission's words about Sweden in Friday's autumn forecast.

Challenges and Uncertainty

Despite the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the great uncertainty surrounding the consequences of Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration in the USA, the EU Commission dares to be cautiously optimistic overall.

But it is with many ifs and buts.

Growth is moderate and exposed to serious risks. This makes it even more urgent to implement an ambitious investment and reform agenda, says Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni at a press conference.

Not least, trade with the USA is a worry – for both sides.

A shift in the USA's trade policy towards more protectionism would be extremely harmful to both economies, says Gentiloni.

Five Countries on Minus

The Commission expects EU growth of 0.9 percent this year, followed by increases of 1.5 and 1.8 percent in 2025 and 2026. For five countries, a negative growth rate is feared this year: the giant Germany, as well as Finland, Ireland, Austria, and Estonia.

Unemployment is expected to land at 6.1 percent in the EU this year. Here, the situation remains worst in Spain at 11.5 percent, followed by Greece at 10.4 and Sweden at 8.5 percent.

Here is the EU Commission's forecast for growth in the EU in 2024 as a percentage of GDP:

Malta: 5

Croatia: 3.6

Cyprus: 3.6

Spain: 3

Poland: 3

Denmark: 2.4

Bulgaria: 2.4

Slovakia: 2.2

Lithuania: 2.2

Greece: 2.1

Portugal: 1.7