It starts quietly with Ericsson on October 14, followed by the major companies. Ahead of the reporting season, the Stockholm stock exchange is in a positive trend with an increase of just over 22 percent since April, when the US President Donald Trump's tariff threats pushed down the stock markets worldwide. The current level also means that the OMXS index is now fluctuating just below the year's high.
Now we have had a more or less uninterrupted increase since April, although the summer may have been a bit more sideways. With this in mind, the potential in a short-term perspective is a bit more limited, says Karl Hedberg, stock market manager at DNB Carnegie Private Banking.
His colleague, Johan H Larsson, chief strategist at Nordea, is on the same track:
Given how well the stock market has gone and how it has developed, I think expectations are high. There were many who sold in the spring and they have been chasing this increase. Last quarter, it was the case that companies that missed expectations were severely punished. The risk is that this theme remains now, he says to TT.
No lift in sight
Companies that, on the other hand, beat expectations risk not getting any price increase, he points out:
It risks becoming such that at first glance, "oh, how good it became", but then the stock still lies still or even falls back. It may seem strange, but then it should be put into perspective that the stock may have gone up 30 percent in the last six months.
A recurring question during the reporting season will be what effects the increased tariffs from the American side will have on the companies. No such answers were really given during the previous reporting period last summer, says Karl Hedberg.
Then it worked out pretty well for the companies anyway. I think there is a slightly greater risk that we will get some form of negative impact a bit clearer in the quarter than we have so far.
Time for strong finish
Even if there should be a recoil downwards in connection with the reporting season, both Karl Hedberg and Johan H Larsson believe that there is still room for a strong finish to the stock market year 2025. Karl Hedberg points out that the Stockholm stock exchange, with a number of engineering companies, can benefit from signs of improved economic conditions.
Should we close ten percent up, it's as a whole a completely okay stock market year. But I think the potential lies more towards next year if we get clearer signs that the economy is actually starting to take off.
