In two weeks, SBAB will present a new forecast for the Swedish housing market. After previously believing that housing prices will rise by six percent this year, there is now reason to revise these figures, says the bank's chief economist Robert Boije to TT.
I think we will need to revise them down a bit. During the spring, we have not seen housing prices rise as much as they normally do seasonally, he says.
Global stock market crash
In addition, the stock market crash that is now sweeping the world, including Sweden and the Stockholm Stock Exchange, must be taken into account. With a decline of 13 percent in one week, the Stockholm Stock Exchange is now down 14 percent since the turn of the year. Robert Boije notes that a nightmare scenario would be an economic situation with stagflation, i.e. where both unemployment and inflation rise simultaneously.
If we get such a development, it will definitely hit the housing market, and that's not where you want to be, he says.
Largest in life
A significant factor for price development is simultaneously market psychology. Concern about stock market developments and one's own savings can make households increasingly restrictive in entering the housing market, notes Robert Boije.
Buying a home is the biggest thing you can do in life, and then maybe you'll hold back in this turbulent situation. You become worried, simply.
For your own part, are you worried about the global situation and stock market developments?
A bit. It's still a completely new world order we're facing. Not being worried would be strange.
