According to the preliminary vote count, the Social Democrats lost 2.3 percentage points in this year's parliamentary elections. But in the party's traditionally strongest strongholds in the north, it is retreating even more.
S is provisionally going backwards in 53 of 54 municipalities in Norrland, with the biggest losses in Sorsele (-9.6) and Sollefteå (-8.8).
In Västernorrland County, for example, the drop is -5.0 percentage points.
"We have not been able to capture the dissatisfaction that exists in Norrland and inland Norrland. We just have to admit it," says John Åberg.
It's sad for me, but the numbers speak for themselves.
“Must be humble”
Even in the municipal elections and in the regions, S is losing in the north.
In Sollefteå and other parts of Västernorrland County, the issue is largely about the long-standing and bitter political battle over moving some care from Sollefteå Hospital, notes John Åberg.
Among other things, this has led to the Norrlandspartiet making strong progress and now winning mandates both in the region and in the seven municipalities in the county.
If this is the voters' most important issue, it's really stupid to anger them on that particular issue, you might think, he says.
There are probably other similar stories around the country too. Where people simply go to the polls on the wrong things. We need to be more humble before the voters and listen to our grassroots.
City versus country
According to Ulf Bjereld, a political scientist and professor at the University of Gothenburg, the Social Democrats' loss in the north is generally not particularly surprising.
However, it seems that it is the Moderates rather than the Sweden Democrats who benefit from it.
At the same time, the Social Democrats have lost significantly less in the big cities.
"You can sense the contours of an even stronger conflict between city and country," says Ulf Bjereld.
The Social Democrats have not managed to explain in a sufficiently skillful way why a Social Democratic policy would make a difference in the districts of Norrland in the way they have succeeded in doing so in the big cities.
According to the preliminary vote count, the Moderates are up 0.8 percentage points in the parliamentary election. However, in the north it is significantly more than that in some areas.
"It is a trend we have seen in recent elections, that we are gaining greater and greater trust in counties that have been strong for the Social Democrats," says Linda Frohm, chairwoman of the Moderates in Norrbotten.
S is still big and strong. But it is clear that we are moving forward.
The Social Democrats are losing more in northern Sweden than in the country as a whole, according to the preliminary count of parliamentary votes that began on election night.
In the four northernmost constituencies, S loses 4.3 percentage points in Jämtland County, 3.9 in Norrbotten County and 3.6 in Västerbotten County. In Västernorrland, the decline is a full 5.0 percentage points compared with the last election.
At the municipal level, the worst results have been in Sorsele (-9.6) and Sollefteå (-8.8).
There are now only four municipalities left where S has more than 40 percent of the parliamentary votes: Piteå (42.7), Skellefteå (42.1), Älvsbyn (42.1) and Kalix (40.5).
Overall, S is tentatively losing ground in 53 of 54 municipalities in Norrland in the parliamentary election. The only exception is Jokkmokk - where the party is up by 0.2 percentage points.
The Moderates are instead doing better than at the national level in the corresponding constituencies: +2.6 in Jämtland County, +2.8 in Norrbotten, +1.2 in Västerbotten and +2.3 in Västernorrland,
M's largest increases at the municipal level in the parliamentary elections are in Strömsund (+5.6) and Arjeplog (+5.0).
