The risk of the war spreading and the conflict escalating is significant, according to analysts at major bank SEB, who believe that the price of oil could rise to $80-100 per barrel.
“This is a much more oil-specific shock than the invasion of Ukraine, which was a gas shock,” they write in a mailing to clients.
Meanwhile, stock markets in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, among others, fell during Sunday's trading, with energy stocks leading the way. On the Saudi stock exchange, oil giant Saudi Aramco rose more than 3 percent, according to Bloomberg.
Oil prices are expected to trend upwards
Risk appetite is taking a hit. After the attack on Saturday, Bitcoin was pushed down to $63,000, close to its lowest level in years. However, on Sunday there was some recovery, to $66,500.
Oil prices are expected to surge as trading begins this week. The war that began with Saturday's attack on Iran is taking place in some of the world's largest oil-producing countries around the Persian Gulf. And gas and oil supplies from the region have already been affected by major disruptions.
"A significant portion of the world's oil transport passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically crucial passage for global oil trade. If flows there were to be disrupted, it risks creating an imbalance in supply. Even without actual disruptions, increased risk in the region could lead to higher transport and insurance costs," writes strategist Shoka Åhrman at SPP Pension & Insurance in a comment emailed to TT.
Brent crude oil closed at nearly $73 a barrel on Friday, up nearly 20 percent since the start of the year. It is the highest oil price on the world market since July 2025.
Swiss franc and gold
Other sea freight is also affected, as shipping lanes in the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal have now become riskier. In addition, Israel has shut down large natural gas facilities, which could have an impact on natural gas prices.
Traditionally safe havens in times of turmoil such as the Swiss franc and gold are expected to be pushed up, while market interest rates are pushed downwards as investors choose government securities to avoid risk.
SEB also believes that the Norwegian krone can keep pace with the upward trend in oil prices.
"We are monitoring developments, but an initial and potentially short-term reaction should be negative with a flight to safer assets," writes Jon Arnell, investment manager at von Euler & Partners, in a comment emailed to TT.
