In connection with interest rate decisions, the Swedish Central Bank and Thedéen most often highlight geopolitical developments as factors that can have major effects on both inflation and interest-rate developments.
The past few weeks have been filled with a series of such news events: first, President Donald Trump and the US attack on Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro was captured; then the protests against the regime in Iran, with mass executions of demonstrators.
At record levels
At the same time, stock markets around the world have reached new record levels, including the Stockholm Stock Exchange's index for large companies (OMXS30).
As cynical as it may sound, it seems that the financial market is assessing, and perhaps we are too, that it will not have a huge impact on the world economy, says Thedéen.
This is because the countries we are now talking about are not very important to the world economy.
One possible factor that could theoretically be affected by the unrest is the price of oil, although both Venezuela and Iran are marginal players on the world market. In recent days, as the unrest in Iran has subsided, the price of oil has fallen back again and a barrel of Brent oil is now trading around $64, compared to $82 a year ago.
China can have a greater impact
Thedéen sees a possible spillover effect to the world's second-largest economy, China, as something that could instead have significant consequences.
The relationship with China and trade with China... the effects can be much greater, but if it is limited to these countries, then it will not have huge effects on the world economy.
