Sweden is not only planning to build new nuclear power. The old one will probably be extended, otherwise a lot of electricity production will disappear in the beginning of the 2040s.
Majority owner Vattenfall will decide within a few years whether to extend the lifespan of the five reactors, three in Forsmark, two in Ringhals. A second in-depth study is underway looking at which parts need to be replaced.
The investment cost is in the order of 50 billion kronor, approximately ten billion per reactor, to get 20 years of extra electricity production. This extension would provide a total of 800 TWh, which is about six times Sweden's annual electricity consumption.
Demand decides
The internal conditions look good. From a technical point of view, Vattenfall's management sees "no major difficulties". But external factors such as demand for electricity and the price of it are not controlled. If the electrification of Sweden does not take off, the investment will be harder to justify.
A large part of the equation is the demand side, says Jan Greisz, head of plant development for Nordic electricity production at Vattenfall.
Do all five reactors have the same conditions?
Ringhals 3 is a bit loose, replies research manager Monika Adsten.
Cannot be replaced
There is a radiation damage in a weld on the reactor tank. The risk is extremely small, but Vattenfall does not want to leave anything to chance, according to her. The tank itself cannot be replaced, which may mean that this particular reactor will have to be shut down without 20 extra years.
It's not the first time the Swedish reactors have been given a reprieve, previously they have been extended from 40 to 60 years. A lifetime extension of a reactor is about replacing a lot, but not the concrete building and the reactor tank itself.
Doesn't an old design become less safe over time?
From a radiation safety point of view, they are robust, which means no increased risk, says Forsmark's CEO Jerry Westerstedt.
Tight in the door
20 years extra would mean that the reactors can be operated until around 2060 and then reached a lifespan of 80 years. Whether it is possible to run them for 100 years is difficult to say, according to Westerstedt.
No final investment decision will be made in 2026/2027 to run the reactors 20 years extra. They are made continuously, but it's about planning so that the conditions exist.
The supplier side risks becoming a bottleneck, says Monika Adsten.
Sweden is not alone in wanting to extend the lifespan of existing nuclear reactors. And in parallel, many countries want to build new reactors, so when nuclear power now increases in popularity, the hunt for competence becomes extremely tough.
Olle Lindström/TT
Facts: Sweden's nuclear reactors
TT
Sweden has six nuclear reactors in operation. Three in Forsmark, two in Ringhals and one in Oskarshamn. These were put into operation during the first half of the 1980s.
Vattenfall is the main owner of the first five, and together with its other owners has a directive to extend the operating time by another 20 years, which means that they can be operated until around 2060.
The owners of Oskarshamn's only remaining reactor also have the same goal. Oskarshamn 3 was started for the first time in 1985.
