The agreement that the White House calls a peace agreement is rather a declaration that the two countries in the Caucasus will sign a peace agreement in the future, says Rasmus Canbäck, active on the reporting site Blankspot, to TT.
The peace agreement is already fully negotiated and at the beginning of the year it was announced that it was ready.
Armenia then announced that the country was ready to sign, but Azerbaijan made additional demands.
Key issue resolved
One of the demands was to resolve the issue of the so-called Zangezur corridor, a transport link between Azerbaijan and the autonomous enclave Nakhchivan, which is surrounded by Armenian territory. Armenia has previously demanded full control over the corridor, while Azerbaijan has requested free passage through it.
The USA has come up with a solution to the whole thing, which means that Armenia will lease the four-mile-long corridor to the USA, which will hire subcontractors to administer it, he says.
Canbäck describes it as Trump solving a key issue that makes it possible for the countries to move forward in the peace negotiations. What it will actually mean is not clear, and there is a risk that it will become a conflict issue in the future, according to Canbäck.
The corridor has now been named "Trump's road for international peace and prosperity".
Peace at the earliest 2026
Azerbaijan has also demanded that Armenia change its constitution, as it claims that the constitution makes claims on the country's territory. Such a change requires a referendum to be held next year, which means that peace can be achieved at the earliest then. What it will result in is unclear, according to Canbäck, who is skeptical that peace will actually be concluded between the countries.
Even if a peace agreement is further away than what the White House claims, the agreement can be seen as a victory for Trump.
One aspect is his vanity, but the other aspect is that the USA gets a presence on the border with Iran, which is an important geopolitical victory for the USA. The third aspect is that trade routes to Central Asia and China are diversified. The Americans hope that it will benefit them and that the region will come closer to Europe and the Western world.
