The price of a barrel of North Sea oil (Brent crude) rose to over 64 dollars immediately after Trump's announcement. But early on Wednesday, the price was under 60 dollars, the lowest since 2021.
With high tariffs, demand for oil will decrease, and in times of concern over a trade war, the oil price has therefore fallen – by around 20 percent over the past week. The price drop has affected commodities in general, according to Christian Kopfer at Handelsbanken.
The market is drawing the conclusion that there is a significant risk of reduced economic activity globally, said Kopfer, explaining the falling oil prices due to trade tariffs.
The forecast was already, before the American import tariffs, that the oil price, and thus gasoline prices, would fall further. Among other things, because the oil cartel Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, had announced increased production.
It is, however, difficult – if not impossible – to predict the price development going forward, according to Christian Kopfer.
The uncertainty is monumental. All balls are up in the air, but you don't know how they will land.
