Fuel rationing in Sweden is not a likely scenario, according to Thina Saltvedt. Large Swedish refineries and long contracts for Norwegian oil eliminate most of that risk.
But she believes there could be recommendations for working from home, carpooling or more use of public transport to adjust fuel consumption.
"This could be the worst blow since the oil crisis of 1973, or even worse. We haven't seen the full consequences yet," she says.
“Insanely expensive”
Saltvedt has booked a trip to Portugal this summer. But she sees a risk that it will be cancelled due to fuel shortages. And she has purchased cancellation protection because she fears it could be “insanely expensive” due to extra fuel charges.
The war's impact has been delayed by large withdrawals from strategic oil reserves in the West and by the inherent inertia of the oil industry. The last tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the US and Israeli bombing of Iran on February 28 have reached their final destinations in recent days.
But now the world must adapt.
That is more than 10 million barrels of oil a day that are not coming to market, she says.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, some infrastructure has been destroyed and needs to be repaired. It takes time. It will take months before this traffic returns to a more normal flow.
Picking up speed
Oil countries like Norway can contribute to the margin by postponing maintenance and producing instead. But new offshore oil production takes 5–10 years to get in place. Shale oil in the US can be increased faster, but it still takes a year and then it is a different type of oil, mainly suitable for gasoline.
New supply routes for oil and gas from the countries around the Persian Gulf would require heavy, risky and time-consuming investments, which must be set against investments in energy transition in the West.
This is the second time in less than ten years that we have had an energy crisis. It is helping to accelerate the energy transition. Energy security and energy independence are moving high up on the political agenda, says Saltvedt.
Global oil and gas prices have already risen by 40–50 percent since February. But it could get worse, Saltvedt fears.
Prices are low relative to the scenario seen in the physical market.
