Two rate cuts in the future would mean a policy rate of 2.25 percent, an interest rate level that the Swedish Central Bank is expected to maintain throughout the forecast period, that is, until and including December 2028, Nordea predicts in its latest forecast.
Previously, Nordea's assessment was that the two interest rate cuts would occur in the second and third quarters of 2027.
Weak crown
The reason Nordea is now predicting earlier interest rate cuts is signs that the Swedish economy is growing stronger. In addition, several other central banks have already cut or signaled cuts.
If the European Central Bank cuts interest rates several times, the risk is that we will have a weaker krona and if we have a weaker krona, we import inflation. The Swedish krona is currently weak and I don't think the Swedish Central Bank wants to see it become significantly weaker, says Annika Winsth.
She also points out that many households are probably not prepared for interest rates to fall. Therefore, the bank will stop at two cuts.
The Swedish Central Bank will probably be a little cautious here. Households have a strong memory of when the policy rate went from 4 to 0 percent and how difficult it was.
Influence consumption
Households have certainly loosened their purse strings recently, although consumption is not quite at the same levels as before the pandemic, according to Nordea. Should the Swedish Central Bank cut interest rates too much, there is a risk that consumption will come to a standstill.
And that's what you want to avoid, says Winsth.
