The head of equities at the Bank of Åland, Lars Söderfjell, gives a similar picture. He also expects a 4 percent increase, but puts it at 322 billion.
My colleague at DNB Carnegie Investment Bank, Karl Hedberg, is somewhat more cautious.
"At least in line with the previous year," he says of the dividends expected this year.
Buybacks are becoming increasingly common
The reporting season has already begun with a number of financial giants on Wall Street. And this week the first major Swedish financial statements of the season will be released, from Wallenbergsfären's Investor and telecom manufacturer Ericsson, among others.
And it is in the financial statements - among figures for the fourth quarter of last year and forecasts for the future outlook - that the boards of listed companies propose dividends. Formally, dividends are hammered out at shareholders' meetings, but in almost all companies, the board's proposal is implemented.
On top of dividends, listed companies buy back shares, which in principle has the same effect as a dividend for the owners.
"It is becoming increasingly common," Söderfjell says of buybacks.
The major banks and truck manufacturer AB Volvo usually top the list of payers when it comes to the amounts distributed to owners on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
"I don't think AB Volvo will increase its dividend this year, given the lower profit," Söderfjell says.
The earnings of Swedish listed companies for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline by perhaps 5 percent - mainly due to the stronger krona, according to Hedberg at DNB Carnegie. But he believes that companies with strong balance sheets can maintain dividends by distributing a slightly larger share of profits this year than last - partly with extra dividends on top of the regular ones.
AB Volvo and Ericsson hot
When it comes to which reports are most exciting ahead of the flood of reports, Söderfjell points to AB Volvo and Ericsson, where the dividend issue is particularly hot. But he is also looking forward to news about order intake in the fourth quarter for engineering giants such as Sandvik and Atlas Copco.
SEB's Lundevall points to the industrial and banking sectors as most important:
"Because of its size."
But consumer-oriented companies are also interesting, as is whether forestry companies are actually starting to recover, he thinks.
"It is the more cyclical sectors on the stock market that are interesting now," Hedberg says.
In the coming weeks, publicly traded companies around the world will present their reports for 2025. Here are some to keep an eye on:
Tuesday, January 20: Netflix
Thursday, January 22: Essity, EQT, Investor, Intel
Friday, January 23: Ericsson
Tuesday, January 27: Sandvik, Atlas Copco
Wednesday, January 28: AB Volvo, SSAB, Tesla, Microsoft
Thursday, January 29: ABB, Nordea, SEB, Swedbank, H&M, Telia, Axfood, Nokia, Apple
Friday, January 30: SKF, Billerud, JM, Holmen, Electrolux, Autoliv
Monday, February 2: Academedia
Tuesday, February 3: Kinnevik, Alfa Laval, Boliden, Fortum, Paypal
Wednesday, February 4: Handelsbanken, Stora Enso, Securitas, Novo Nordisk, Carlsberg, Alphabet (Google)
Thursday 5 February: Volvo Cars, Evolution, Saab, Assa Abloy, Skanska, Industrivärden, AP Møller-Mærsk, BNP Paribas, Vestas Wind Systems, Shell
Friday 6 February: Ørsted, AP Møller-Mærsk, Arcelor Mittal
Tuesday, February 10: Astra Zeneca, Spotify
Wednesday 11 February: BP, Dassault Systemes
Thursday 12 February: Nibe Industrier, Orkla, Unilever, Embracer, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens
Friday 13 February: Norsk Hydro, Norwegian
Thursday, February 19: Airbus, Walmart
Wednesday, February 25: Eon, Nvidia
