When Must, the Military Intelligence and Security Service, presented its report for 2025 at the beginning of the year, it pointed out that Russia was taking increasingly greater risks. Now, six months later, the situation has worsened, according to Thomas Nilsson.
Overall, I think it's getting worse, unfortunately. It's going in the wrong direction," he says.
He mentions Russian violations of airspace in Finland and Estonia, the bombing of a railway in Poland, escalated attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, and a sharpened Russian narrative that it is in a strategic conflict with the West.
We hear more and more Russian representatives, including Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, saying that the West is planning attacks on Russia. That it is a larger plan to overthrow Russia.
High price
When the temperature is slowly turned up, it is not always noticeable, he says.
But whatever it is, the temperature is a little too high for that poor frog.
But Russia's war comes with great human losses for the country.
"In my eyes, it is unimaginable. It is impossible to imagine that a normal democratic country could accept that kind of losses and the price that is paid," says Nilsson.
When asked if there are any concrete figures on the Russian losses, Thomas Nilsson replies:
No, but we have pretty much confirmed, depending on how you count, that overall we have passed a million Russians in losses. We are talking about killed and wounded, those who can no longer participate in the battle.
The losses are also economic. In an interview with the Financial Times this spring, Thomas Nilsson said that Sweden has intelligence indicating that Russia is systematically manipulating data on inflation and growth, among other things. The country is under more economic pressure than it wants to show, according to Nilsson.
He describes the Russian economy as a paradox. The war industry is running at full speed, has a labor shortage and is driving up inflation.
But all the parts that are healthy in an economy, they don't exist. So it's a very artificial war economy.
Closer to the people
Now Russia is also being pressured by Ukrainian drone attacks inside the country. Ukraine has also gained access to long-range missiles, which have allowed it to reach as far as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Oil and gas facilities have been knocked out and fuel shortages have been created in, among other places, occupied Crimea.
According to Thomas Nilsson, it is a way for Ukraine to bring the war closer to the Russian people.
Despite that, he describes the situation on the battlefield as fairly static.
There is currently no sign that either side has the power or ability to win the war militarily in the near future.
