The result will come shortly after 3 pm this afternoon, when it's time for the traditional press conference in Harpsund, where the Minister of Finance presents the scope for unfunded initiatives ahead of budget negotiations with the government's ministers and the Sweden Democrats.
Election year and lowconjuncture
Nordea's economists expect that there will be unfunded reforms for 70 billion kronor, according to the bank's chief economist Annika Winsth.
It's around 1 percent of GDP, roughly, she says.
It's an expansive budget and it's about the fact that it's both an election year (2026) and a low conjuncture, she adds.
Colleagues at Swedbank and SEB believe it can be even more. In Swedbank's conjuncture report from earlier in the week, 75 billion was stated as a prognosis for unfunded initiatives in the budget. In SEB's conjuncture report – which came at the same time as Swedbank's – a prognosis range of 60-80 billion kronor was given.
The money is expected, according to the assessors, to go to, among other things, tax cuts, an extension of the ROT deduction, and increased benefits, and comes after last year's significant increase in the reform space to 60 billion kronor.
"Double the historical average"
Albin Kainelainen, head of the National Institute of Economic Research (KI), describes the initiatives that the major banks' economists are counting on as "large".
If you get up to 70-80 billion, it's large sums from a historical perspective. It's double the historical average, he says.
The more money that is used in this budget, the less there is ahead. You eat up the future space for unfunded measures in future budgets, he adds about the risks of large initiatives.
Kainelainen assesses the risk that large fiscal stimuli will create inflation as limited. But it can affect the Swedish Central Bank's scope to lower the interest rate:
The more you take in fiscal policy, the less monetary policy needs to do.
The National Institute of Economic Research (KI) wrote in a prognosis update at the beginning of August that they expect the government's budget bill for 2026 to contain "unfunded measures" for 34 billion.
On Thursday, at 3 pm, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson is expected to tell what it will be.
KI's figure is, according to KI chief Albin Kainelainen, "a technical assumption" and "the historical average". It says nothing about what is likely or suitable, according to the KI chief.
Major banks such as Nordea, SEB, and Swedbank are counting on unfunded initiatives of 60-80 billion.
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Nordea, SEB, Swedbank
