The situation is bleak for L. Public support is around two percent, members have decreased by 2,000 during the Tidö collaboration and now surveys show that voters' confidence in L in the party's flagship branch - education - is declining.
But after this weekend's national conference, the party leadership believes in a turnaround. It hopes that the discussion about the relationship with the SD can be put aside and that voter support will increase when they are allowed to talk about substantive politics, especially school policy, instead.
But political scientist Johansson Heinö, publisher at the bourgeois think tank Timbro, is doubtful that L will now escape the government issue.
They have prioritized a line that the party can agree on, at the expense of it becoming very unclear, he says.
Yes and no
The National Assembly's decision means that L says yes to continued cooperation with SD, but no to allowing SD into a government.
Journalists will still ask and voters will perceive it as unclear, says Johansson Heinö.
He points out that the lack of clarity risks leading to the party not being allowed to talk about substantive politics anyway and that L risks losing out on important moderate support votes in the election. Support votes that may be needed to prevent L from falling out of parliament.
It's not over yet, says Johansson Heinö.
Small parties get more space in the election campaign. If you run a good election campaign, you can rise, it has happened many times.
Game plan can be changed
If the Tidö parties were to win a majority in the election, forming a government could be significantly more difficult than in 2022. Then the SD would not have an absolute requirement to be in the government.
Now they have drawn another line, while L keeps its own. So in that way it is more difficult, says Johansson Heinö.
But the election results for the various Tidö parties could change the playing field. Johansson Heinö points out that it may not be obvious that SD will stick to its demand if the party were to back down significantly. Or that M wants to form a government with SD if the party becomes much larger than M.
Johansson also points out that if the formation of a government drags on, prime ministerial candidates are voted down in parliament and a by-election approaches, "a new logic is born," which allows parties to back down from established red lines.
It is clear that in such a situation all party leaders receive a strengthened mandate to resolve the situation and reach an agreement, says Johansson Heinö.
No to SD in a new Tidö government
Continue with the Tidö collaboration as it is today.
Phase out profit motives from the school system - no limited companies
Maximum number of students in a school class
Right to have children 30 hours in preschool for the unemployed and those on parental leave
Compulsory language preschool
Penalty fee for schools that hire unauthorized teachers.
Possible for schools to introduce school uniforms
More disciplinary measures - such as making amends by cleaning a graffitied wall
Increased gender equality bonus in parental insurance to SEK 30,000
A fourth month for fathers in parental insurance
New child allowance of SEK 10,000 per child and year
Before VAF compensation, care of (old) parent
The state income tax will be halved
Employer contributions should be reduced
The first 100,000 kronor earned from work or entrepreneurship is tax-free.
Abolish the requirement for visitor arrangements at farm sales of alcohol
Europe Day, May 9, will be a public flag day.
Source: Liberals
