Iran's nuclear energy program has received a significant blow after the weekend's American attacks on the enrichment facilities Fordo and Natanz and the technical center Isfahan.
A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, admitted on Wednesday that it is a matter of "severe damage", but without wanting to go into details, according to the news agency AP.
Fredrik Nielsen, a nuclear weapons researcher at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), says that the facilities are certainly out of operation for a while:
The power supply is down, roads are destroyed and entrances to the facilities as well, he says.
Lack of technical capabilities?
The UN's atomic energy agency IAEA estimates that Iran has around 400 kilograms of uranium that has been enriched up to 60 percent. For the uranium to be used in weapons, it needs to reach an enrichment level of 90 percent, which is only a few technical steps away.
Fredrik Nielsen says that it is not certain whether it is a lack of technical capabilities or an active choice from Iran's side not to take the last steps in the enrichment process. If it is an active choice, he believes that voices are now being raised in the country to enrich fully.
The technical conditions have deteriorated, but the intentions to develop nuclear weapons have certainly increased, says Fredrik Nielsen.
Need a facility
Regardless of the damage to the facilities, the uranium may have been moved to another location. Maybe even a secret facility where it can be fully enriched. Fredrik Nielsen says that nothing indicates that Iran has secret enrichment facilities, but he would not be surprised if the opposite is proven.
Iran has a history of not disclosing where they have their facilities.
To enrich the uranium, you need a facility, but it does not have to be large. It would be enough with a little enrichment capability to take it the last bit. In that case, it could be a matter of a very short time, maybe weeks. But it is not likely, says Fredrik Nielsen and continues:
The most likely scenario is that they do not develop nuclear weapons in the near future.
