56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since he was chosen to succeed his father, who was killed in an attack on Tehran in connection with the outbreak of war in February.
A funeral ceremony for Iran's long-time supreme spiritual leader will, after much deliberation, be held starting in Tehran this weekend.
Risk of attack
The ceremonies begin in the Iranian capital on Saturday, with three public holidays declared there. The process will then continue in various parts of the country and also in Iraq until July 9, when the actual burial will take place in Khamenei's hometown of Mashhad.
According to Mohammad Fazlhashemi, who works at Uppsala University, it would be a big surprise if Mojtaba Khamenei showed up at the ceremonies.
Not least because there is an imminent risk that he would be subjected to an attack.
Israel and the US have a major intelligence advantage over Iran and as soon as he shows up, he becomes a target for American and especially Israeli agents inside Iran, says Mohammad Fazlhashemi.
One explanation for Mojtaba's staying away is that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has previously warned that any new leaders appointed by Iran will be killed.
"There is a clear threat against him. But things can happen. We can only wait and see," says Mohammad Fazlhashemi.
Could be seriously injured
Khamenei the younger is said to have been seriously injured in the same attack in central Tehran that killed his father. According to sources to Reuters, Mojtaba Khamenei is said to have been seriously injured in one or both legs, and there are also reports that his face is said to have been disfigured.
That may be an explanation for not showing him, but Iran dismisses this as disinformation, says Mohammad Fazlhashemi.
The Iranian regime has firmly dismissed rumors that the successor has been killed.
According to Muslim tradition, burials should only take place a few days after death. The Iranian regime has explained that Khamenei is being buried only now by saying that it was not possible earlier due to intense attacks on the country.
According to reports in Iranian state media, between 12 and 20 million people are expected to participate in the mourning ceremonies.
