According to the state bank SBAB and the housing site Booli's price index, housing prices are now at approximately the same level as at the turn of 2020/2021.
SBAB's chief economist Robert Boije believes the decline may be a normalization after the pandemic years, when housing prices - especially for villas - rose sharply, but he still describes it as "a bit strange".
We have still had a fairly strong year behind us, with falling mortgage rates, especially variable rates, and also strong increases in real wages, he says.
With the price decline in December, housing prices are just under 12 percent below the peak prices from spring 2022.
In 2026, the government has announced easing of amortization requirements and a raised mortgage ceiling, among other measures, with the aim of helping young people enter the housing market. According to SBAB's forecast, housing prices will rise by around five percent next year.
We do not believe that housing prices will be affected very much by these changed mortgage rules, but what will primarily drive the price picture next year is continued rises in real incomes, Robert Boije says.
SBAB predicts that variable mortgage rates will remain relatively stable in 2026, but also sees a market upturn in longer-term interest rates.
I don't think we should expect any boost to housing prices from interest rates in 2026; quite the opposite, Robert Boije says.
