The great uncertainty has mainly created by the spring's tariff shock from the USA.
The Swedish Central Bank lowers the interest rate twice this year – from 2.25 to 1.75 percent – believes Handelsbanken's economists according to a new prognosis.
"The Swedish Central Bank can lower the interest rate without risking a rising inflation", says chief economist Christina Nyman in a press release.
But Nordea, which also presents a business cycle report on Wednesday, believes in a continued recovery of the Swedish economy and therefore no interest rate cuts at all this year.
"Inflation is far above the target during large parts of the current year. Therefore, it is not an environment for interest rate cuts", says Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth in a press release.
Already in June
Christina Nyman at Handelsbanken expects the first cut to come already in June and that it will be followed by another cut in August.
Earlier, the bank counted on three cuts, to 1.50 percent this year.
But the outlook for the Swedish economy does not look quite as dark as it did in Handelsbanken's prognosis update at the beginning of April, notes the bank.
The strong rise of the krona against other currencies this year also creates room for interest rate cuts.
Nordea also delivers a business cycle report on Wednesday and believes in a continued recovery of the Swedish economy. But no further interest rate cuts from the Swedish Central Bank are in the cards.
We expect the Swedish Central Bank to wait and when inflation falls back in the autumn, the business cycle outlook is better and the need to lower the interest rate is gone", says Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth.
Strengthened Krona
In the prognosis, Nordea also writes that strong public finances as well as relatively favorable business cycle outlooks speak in favor of the Swedish krona being strengthened further down to 10.50 against the euro.
So far this year, the krona has strengthened by almost 13 percent against the dollar, to 9.65 kronor. Against the euro, the increase is around 5 percent this year.
In the major bank SEB's prognosis, which came two weeks ago, an interest rate cut by the Swedish Central Bank this year was included in the main scenario. Swedbank's economists, in turn, had two cuts in their main prognosis, also presented two weeks ago.
The next interest rate decision from the Swedish Central Bank, which left the interest rate unchanged at the May meeting, comes on June 18.
