Food prices, including non-alcoholic beverages, rose in April by 5.5 percent year-on-year, according to Statistics Sweden (SCB). The price increase has thus increased slightly. In March, it was 5.4 percent on an annual basis.
Coffee prices rose unusually much in April. The black beverage has become 42 percent more expensive (plus 15 percent compared to March). Chocolate, in turn, has risen by almost 31 percent. Other food products that have risen a bit extra are dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs, 7.6 percent more expensive on an annual basis, according to SCB.
Coffee driving
Compared to March, food prices, including non-alcoholic beverages, rose by 0.2 percent.
It's a very small increase compared to the previous month, only 0.2 percent. So, it's almost unchanged food prices. Moreover, it's exclusively driven by coffee prices, which rose much on a monthly basis, says Nordea's chief analyst Torbjörn Isaksson.
- It's not a broad increase for food prices, but rather it seems to have calmed down. Food prices have leveled out, he continues.
He believes that coffee prices have now.
Cheaper fish
But there are also food items that have become cheaper.
"Fish has decreased in price by 2.3 percent over the year," says Caroline Neander, price statistician at SCB, in a press release.
On the other hand, among various consumer prices in SCB's aggregated goods and services basket, rent costs and fuel have fallen by over 20 percent and nearly 17 percent.
Rents in rental properties have risen by 5.5 percent over the year.
The overall inflation rate is, however, at a moderate 0.3 percent. According to the measure KPIF, adjusted for rent costs and what the Swedish Central Bank employs, the inflation rate was 2.3 percent, the same as the preliminary figure showed last week.
Believes in interest rate cut
Jens Magnusson, who is chief economist at the bank SEB, says that today's figures confirm the picture of a positive development regarding inflation, which increases the belief that the Swedish Central Banken will lower the interest rate at the next meeting.
If you also add that we saw an opening from the Swedish Central Banken at the last meeting for the possibility of easing in monetary policy, we maintain the view that there will be a cut in June, says Jens Magnusson.
Last week, Matpriskollen released the price development of food, which showed increased prices by 0.4 percent compared to March and plus 4.0 percent on an annual basis.
This is how the measurement methods differ between SCB and Matpriskollen:
SCB measures actual sales and actual prices, and is based on a specific basket of goods where different goods "weigh" differently depending on how much of a particular good people buy.
The distribution of commodity groups in the basket is determined based on consumer purchasing patterns in 2023 (the nearest completed calendar year) and the specific goods in the selection are chosen based on data for both 2023 and 2024.
Matpriskollen is based on advertised regular prices of over 40,000 goods from the larger chains. Matpriskollen thus measures prices, not actual sales.
Sources: SCB and Matpriskollen
