In 2025, prices of both condominiums and villas have been essentially unchanged on an annual basis.
What makes several experts still believe in rising prices is partly hope for a better economy and partly the changes expected in the form of a raised mortgage ceiling and the removal of the stricter amortization requirement. The proposal is expected to give an extra boost to the housing market.
"I would say that it primarily has an effect on small apartments like one- and two-bedroom apartments. Then of course there will be a small chain effect. If these apartments are sold, they will have the incentive to buy larger apartments," says Erik Holmberg, market analyst at Hemnet.
What is most important for price development, the changed rules or the economic development?
I would say the economy, if we get the relatively strong development that is in the forecast, that is a foundation.
Same line
Jens Magnusson, chief economist at SEB, is on the same line:
We still believe that it will pick up a bit next year and these are the same factors that we believe will drive economic growth - higher wages, lower inflation and lower interest rates as the interest rate cuts gradually have an impact on the economy.
Jens Magnusson also highlights the relaxed amortization requirements as an important factor:
It's not 100% decided yet, but we assume that it will be that way from April 1. What's holding back housing prices is that there is already quite a large supply. All in all, we believe that prices will rise 5 percent next year and maybe 3 percent in 2027.
An increase
Another chief economist, Susanne Spector at Danske Bank, makes the same assessment, that is, an increase of 5 percent.
Next year we expect consistent price increases throughout the year, a slightly higher rate in the spring if the changes to the amortization rules are introduced as expected, overall housing prices will increase roughly in line with household incomes, she says.
Tobias Österberg/TT
Facts: Proposals that will boost the housing market
TT
Mortgage ceiling:
The government has proposed raising the ceiling from the current 85 percent to 90 percent of the home's value. This means that a cash deposit of 10 percent is needed instead of the current 15 percent.
The amortization requirement:
The stricter amortization requirement is being removed. This means that you no longer have to make extra amortization if the loan exceeds 4.5 times your annual income.
Timetable:
The new rules are proposed to come into force on April 1, 2026.
