This year's dividend payments are expected to increase by around 6 percent compared to last year.
It's going to be a dividend party. And among the companies that will distribute the largest dividends are popular stocks, such as major banks and AB Volvo. They have a very large number of shareholders. So, many will get to take part in the large dividend payments this spring, says Maria Landeborn, senior analyst at Danske Bank.
"A lot of capital to distribute"
Karl Hedberg, head of equities at Carnegie Private Banking, has a slightly more subdued tone when he describes what he expects.
I think we'll see a continued upward trend in dividend levels, he says.
This applies not least to what Hedberg describes as "over-capitalized banks".
There is a lot of capital to distribute to the owners.
The reports are not expected to offer any dramatic improvements in results and sales. However, Hedberg hopes that the companies' forecasts will provide positive signals – especially from industrial companies – following the recent increases in, for example, the purchasing managers' index.
The headwind for the construction sector and companies with exposure to interest-rate-sensitive households is expected to persist, believes Hedberg. He refers, among other things, to profit warnings from the installation company Instalco, the machinery manufacturer Husqvarna, and the e-commerce company Boozt.
Donald Trump's re-election as US President – in about a week – creates great uncertainty around tariffs, inflation, and geopolitics. But overall, Trump in the White House, with tax cuts and deregulation on the agenda, could become a positive factor for the Stockholm Stock Exchange as well, believe both Landeborn and Hedberg.
We are far from unaffected by the tariffs, but in the end, it will probably be net-positive, says Hedberg.
Great focus on the stock market
This applies not least to Swedish companies with significant operations in the US, such as Skanska, Securitas, and Astra Zeneca. But also consumer-oriented industrial companies – such as Electrolux, Husqvarna, or Thule – which could benefit from US tariffs on imports from Asian companies.
The fact that Trump has such a strong focus on the stock market is somewhat reassuring for everyone who has invested money in stocks. If we get strongly negative market reactions to something he does, I think it could affect his decisions, says Landeborn.
Her main scenario is that the Stockholm Stock Exchange will rise by 10-15 percent this year, which would be two to three times more than in 2024.
The reporting season kicks off this week, and we are facing a flood of reports and forecasts that can set the stock market in motion.
The average forecast is that the profits of listed companies will increase in 2024.
Here are some important dates to keep an eye on:
Wednesday, January 15: Blackrock, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup.
Thursday, January 16: TSMC, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley.
Tuesday, January 21: Avanza, Netflix.
Wednesday, January 22: Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson.
Thursday, January 23: Swedbank, Essity, Sandvik, Intrum, Investor, EQT, General Electric.
Friday, January 24: Ericsson, ST Microelectronics, LVMH, American Express, Verizon Communications.
Monday, January 27: Autoliv, AT&T.
Tuesday, January 28: Getinge, Nordnet, Atlas Copco, SAP, Lockheed Martin, General Motors.
Wednesday, January 29: SEB, Tele2, AB Volvo, SSAB, Cloetta, Trelleborg, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, IBM, Tesla, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft.
Thursday, January 30: ABB, Telia, H&M, Nordea, Axfood, Gränges, Evolution, Electrolux, Nokia, Deutsche Bank, Shell, Sanofi, Northrop Grumman.
Friday, January 31: Atrium Ljungberg, SCA, SKF, Byggmax, Hemnet, JM, Holmen.
Tuesday, February 4: Spotify, BNP Paribas, Infineon Technologies, Dassault Systemes, Estée Lauder, Paypal, Pepsico, Pfizer.
Wednesday, February 5: Novo Nordisk, UPM-Kymmene, Wärtsilä, DNB Bank, Equinor, Vestas Wind Systems, Total Energies, Credit Agricole, GSK, Stanley Black & Decker, Walt Disney, T Rowe Price.
Thursday, February 6: Volvo Cars, Astra Zeneca, Vattenfall, Ørsted, Maersk, DNO, Telenor, Carlsberg, Sampo, Arcelor Mittal, L’Oreal, Societe Generale, Bristol-Myers Squibb.
