According to Johan Norberg, it could be anything from terror attacks to poor bridge maintenance. But there is much in the current situation that suggests it is about Ukrainian sabotage, he believes.
That this happened within a day speaks in favor of it being someone's action. It cannot be said for certain, but what speaks in favor of it still being Ukraine is that it benefits them, that it affects Russian railways negatively, says Norberg, who is a security policy analyst and Russia expert at the Total Defence Research Institute, FOI.
The two collapses occurred in the regions of Bryansk and Kursk, both of which border Ukraine. Johan Norberg also views the geographical proximity as something that could indicate Ukrainian involvement.
It is easier to operate from one's own territory, he says.
Russia claims terrorist attack
Russian authorities claim that the collapses occurred due to the bridges exploding.
When the train is on the bridge and then it explodes, it means that one must have eyes on the target to see exactly when it happens, to the second. Then one can have drones or a reconnaissance soldier in the terrain, he says.
At the same time, Norberg means that the collapses will likely have a minimal effect on the war, as the broad Russian railway network offers other routes for transporting military goods to the front.
We are in a war of attrition, it is not someone who can make a brilliant operation that leads to the war ending. Now it is about grinding down the other's resources, and it is not just the units at the front but also how one supplies them, he says.
Infrastructure becomes a target
Johan Norberg emphasizes that infrastructure has consistently been used as military targets by both Russia and Ukraine throughout the war.
It will be interesting to see the coming days or weeks if there will be more such things and then one can sense a campaign, he says.
Russian authorities claim that terrorism is behind the collapses. Ukraine has not commented on the events.
