The agreement had barely been announced before Israeli officials began to grumble. Israel is not a party to the agreement, ultra-conservative Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir claimed, while Israeli artillery continued to rattle in Lebanon.
Aron Lund, an analyst at the Swedish National Defense Research Institute (FOI), sees the Lebanon issue as the agreement's biggest pitfall.
If this is to last, the US will need to devote time to Lebanon in the future, he says.
The US clearly has the power to influence Israel's actions, Lund notes. President Trump's incentives to be "Israel's best friend" are probably not as great as they once were, he says.
Donald Trump has invested so much in this that he will want to keep an eye on Israel, to make sure Israel complies with this.
And when Trump focuses his attention on something and puts his full force there, he mostly gets what he wants.
“From conflict to conflict”
However, the American president has a history of "declaring huge victories" in everything from the Gaza Strip to North Korea, Lund points out - only to then lose interest and see the alleged agreements fall apart.
He seems to have the attention span of a five-year-old. He drifts from conflict to conflict, and as soon as he takes his eyes off something, things start happening.
Lebanon is not the most important issue for either the US or Iran, according to Aron Lund. The Strait of Hormuz, nuclear energy and sanctions are likely much higher on the countries' respective lists of demands. But the Lebanon issue is the one that is most hanging loose - and thus has the greatest risk of derailing the agreement.
Lost their homes
A big problem is that a fifth of Lebanon's population, a large, large part of the country's Shia Muslims, have lost their homes. They live on football pitches and in schools - and their houses in southern Lebanon have started to be blown up and bulldozed by Israel. It's not a situation that is sustainable internally, says Aron Lund.
In recent months, Israel's ground invasion of the neighboring country has escalated into a unilaterally declared "security zone" with the aim of keeping the Shiite militia Hezbollah at bay. The situation in southern Lebanon is a powder keg, Lund notes.
"I can't imagine Hezbollah would stop fighting that kind of Israeli presence," he says.
The US will need to manage the crisis surrounding Lebanon.
Much is unclear about the statement of intent in which the US and Iran say they have agreed to end the Iran war. This is what is known at this time:
Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program for 60 days: When the US and Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program, it was justified by the fact that the country was close to acquiring nuclear weapons. How to prevent this - how underground facilities and highly enriched uranium can be destroyed - will be addressed in technical talks during the period, according to the White House.
Strait of Hormuz opens: The shipping route between Iran and Oman, so important for international oil trade, is scheduled to open to traffic on Friday. According to President Donald Trump, traffic will be "free of charge" and the US blockade will be lifted. However, Iran wants to be able to charge a fee for passing ships, according to the AP.
Lifting sanctions: International sanctions against Iran are to be lifted and some frozen assets will become available. It is unclear which sanctions these are.
Peace in Lebanon: The deal also includes a halt to fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is unclear how Israel will respond to this, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon “for as long as necessary.”
Source: AP and others
Over the past 50 years, Israel has entered Lebanon with ground forces on seven occasions.
Israel's opponent in Lebanon, the Shiite Muslim movement Hezbollah, is a militia and political party. It was founded partly with Iranian help after Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s. It acts as a proxy for Iran in conflicts in the Middle East and has been partly labeled a terrorist organization by the EU and the US.
The long-running conflict flared up again in connection with the Gaza War. A ceasefire was reached in 2024 that required both Hezbollah and Israel to withdraw from a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The parties have accused each other of violating it.
Fighting broke out again in the spring of 2026 when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in response to the country's war with Iran. Israeli ground forces have advanced further into Lebanon, hundreds of thousands have been displaced, and there have been warnings of a permanent Israeli occupation.
