Russian forces may be on the verge of capturing Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine after a long period of fighting. However, exactly when this might happen is very unclear, says Johan Norberg, security policy analyst and Russia expert at the Swedish National Defence Research Institute (FOI).
But even if the city, which has been called both symbolic and strategic, falls into Russian hands, he does not believe it will change the war at large.
It's just another place where the Russians will conquer a ruinous pile at gigantic cost.
Many are discovered
At the moment, Russian soldiers are moving forward in very small groups of two to four people, and can thus get a little way into Ukrainian territory. The question is what happens then, says Johan Norberg. The soldiers have with them the ammunition, food and water they can carry and have an endurance of perhaps a few days, so they can hardly achieve any major military decisiveness.
What the Russians can do is slowly, slowly, slowly nibble their way through. But at the cost of a great many of these soldiers being discovered and fought, and they are quite unprotected.
Johan Norberg also points out that the situation is not easy for Ukraine, which is hard pressed and worn out. The lack of infantry soldiers makes it difficult to hold out and Ukrainian defensive positions are so sparse on large parts of the front that it is easy for small Russian groups to get through.
What they can do is simply sacrifice terrain for time. And make sure it goes slowly for the Russians, who have to pay a very high price for the areas they take.
Fight on chalk
The Russians have already claimed that they control the city of Pokrovsk, but the fighting continues. And Russia wants to spread the image that the country is making advances. There is also a concept – that Russian units are fighting “on credit”, says Johan Norberg. That the country's authorities claim that they have taken a village, but when the soldiers point out that they have not, they are told that they must, since the advance has already been announced.
The battle for Pokrovsk continues, and for the Ukrainians it is important to hold out as long as possible, says Johan Norberg.
But then it's probably more important for them to save units today so they can continue fighting tomorrow.
