Russia has a significant strategic interest in the Romanian election. The country is located on the Black Sea coast, has NATO bases, and is an important country for international support during the Russian invasion war.
In the EU, there are already Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, but for the Russian President Vladimir Putin, it would be a major success to have another friendly country in the EU. In the first round of the Romanian election, the far-right party AUR's candidate George Simion received by far the most votes.
In Romania, which has traditionally been almost anti-Russian, the pro-Russian rhetoric is a big plus. And it's very attractive for expanding its influence on the Balkans, says Fanny Wallberg at the Foreign Policy Institute.
Controversial annulment
Romania actually held its presidential election last autumn, when another far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, received the most votes in the first round. The success was surprising since he was previously a relatively unknown candidate. Allegations of undue influence from abroad, including via TikTok, led to the election being annulled.
Georgescu has not been allowed to stand in the new election, whose first round was held on May 4.
The annulment of the previous election was controversial, not only in far-right circles. Many believe that "he may have used unfair means on TikTok, but we elected him". And I really think that has worked in Simion's favor now, says Fanny Wallberg.
More nuanced
Simion is a football hooligan who made headlines last year when he was physically threatening a minister in parliament. On another occasion, he has threatened a former party colleague with sexual violence.
He has been more nuanced in his statements than the party's previous candidate Georgescu, but at the same time said that he – if he wins – will make Georgescu, who has openly praised Putin, the prime minister. But so far, the election outcome is not clear. The opponent in the second round is Bucharest's independent liberal mayor Nicosur Dan, who according to some of the latest opinion polls has a chance to take the presidential post.
Many analysts believe it is difficult to predict the future if Simion becomes president.
The general feeling is that you can't trust him. He has denied being pro-Russian, but he has all the characteristics of a pro-Russian leader, for example, he wants to end support to Ukraine.
