A Kurdish ground offensive is expected “within days” in northwestern Iran, British broadcaster ITV has learned. Kurdish military groups have reportedly asked US and Israeli forces for air support when the offensive begins.
If they receive US air support, they have the potential to be quite successful against the Iranian military in those parts of the country, believes Aras Lindh, an analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and an expert on Kurdish groups.
Weapons are said to have been smuggled into western Iran to arm the Kurds, reports ITV. The US and Israel are said to have bombed regime targets in western Iran in recent days to give the militias the best possible starting position. Whether the information is correct is difficult to know - but regardless, the Kurds can hardly bring down the regime in Tehran alone, Lindh notes:
If regime change is now the goal.
Conversation with Trump
CNN's sources also state that the US is working to arm Kurdish forces to foment an armed uprising against the Iranian regime.
"We believe we have a great chance now," a senior Iranian-Kurdish source told CNN.
In the days before the outbreak of war, five Iranian-Kurdish parties and armed groups agreed to coordinate in a coalition. Sources told Reuters that some of them had held discussions with the United States in recent days about possible attacks on Iranian security forces in western Iran.
Among other things, President Donald Trump himself is said to have spoken with the KDPI leader Mustafa Hijri on Tuesday, according to CNN's source.
Perceived as betrayal
Iran has also intensified its bombing of Kurdish areas. On Wednesday, for example, Iranian rockets were directed at the exiled Kurdish separatist movement PAK in northern Iraq, AFP reports. The partially autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq is home to camps and bases belonging to several Iranian-Kurdish groups.
Iran's approximately ten million Kurds live under heavy repression by the Islamic regime. Although they have long strived for increased rights and regime change, there are also questions about the willingness of the United States to help.
There is a long historical experience of what is perceived as betrayal from a Kurdish perspective - that one has been used in the short term to achieve American goals, and when one no longer fulfills any function, one has simply been left to one's fate, says Aras Lindh.
The Kurds are being used as pawns in a very clear way. On the other hand, the Kurdish actors are mainly positive about receiving US support in their fight against Iran.
The Kurds are an ethnic group that once formed minorities in the Ottoman and Persian empires. They have never had a lasting state of their own, but now form significant minorities primarily in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
In all countries, Kurds face extensive oppression and many strive for an independent Kurdistan consisting of the areas where Kurds primarily live.
Iran's nearly ten million Kurds make up around ten percent of the country's population. They have traditionally lived in the northwestern parts of the country, but many are moving as these areas are lagging behind economically.
Iran's Kurds have long been under strong pressure to assimilate into the majority population. Most Iranian Kurds are Sunni Muslims, while Persians are Shia Muslims.
In 1946, Iran's Kurds, with support from the Soviet Union, founded a small state with Mahabad as its capital, but it was soon crushed by the Iranian Shah. Since then, fighting between various Kurdish groups and the government in Tehran has flared up periodically.
Sources: Landguiden/UI, Amnesty International and others
