The next interest rate announcement from the Swedish Central Bank will come later in September. Although Danske Bank believes there will be a hike in November, there is really no reason for the Swedish Central Bank to wait, Susanne Spector believes.
The economy is already in a normal state, inflation risks are increasing and monetary policy is working with a lag. But given how the Swedish Central Bank communicated in August, we believe another meeting will be required.
Danske Bank then expects an increase in February next year, which would give a key interest rate of 2.25 percent.
Spector does not see that two increases would put too much pressure on Swedish households.
If we look at households' interest rate expectations in the National Institute of Economic Research's barometer, we see that households expect higher interest rates.
It looks like households have both taken in the interest rate environment we have and that the next step will be a couple of increases, she continues.
Spector also points out that inflation will be higher next year, just like interest rates. Inflation according to the CPIF measure is expected to rise to 1.4 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year, according to the bank's latest forecast.
The best time for households is now, she says.
The bank is simultaneously raising its GDP forecast for 2026 from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent, with a small upward revision for 2027 (2.5 percent compared with 2.4 percent).
