In the 2020s alone, Sweden and the world have already had at least three serious economic crises, including the one that is now feared to have major effects in the form of an energy crisis.
In the past, they used to say that perhaps one occurred per generation.
Because those who had been affected and involved in the crisis learned to be more cautious. I don't think that really applies anymore, says Klas Eklund, currently chief strategist at Dahlgren Capital.
Worst crisis
Now everything tends to move faster, spreading rapidly across the earth, hour by hour.
Because the financial markets are bigger and faster and often suffer from hysteria, of joy or great sadness, and jump up and down all the time. It seems as if you don't have time to learn from old memories, says Eklund, who previously served as chief economist at SEB, among other things.
You simply forget faster. And thus perhaps repeat your mistakes.
The worst Swedish crisis in modern times is, according to Eklund, the 1990s crisis that led to mass unemployment and miserable Swedish public finances, effects that lasted for several years.
Those involved in it suffered scars that lasted for many years. It was one reason why Sweden was not as badly affected when the next financial crisis, in 2008, came. We had much more stable banks then, says Eklund.
Rationing and queues
We've had oil crises before. Those who have been around for a while remember 1973, also as an effect of the war in the Middle East. Then there was not only a price shock, there was rationing with coupons and long lines at gas stations.
If that happens, it leaves quite strong memories in people's minds.
Crises come and go, and there are similarities and differences, even though each crisis is unique in itself. Previous oil crises, for example, can be reminiscent of today's situation.
But the situation then and now is very different. Back then, Sweden and other countries were much more dependent on oil than we are today. We imported much more oil, we heated our houses with oil. That's not the case today. But it's clear it still affects us to some extent.
The most serious thing today is the indirect effects, he continues.
Far from a deep crisis
What many economists are worried about is that this new Iran crisis will repeat the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine in the form of prolonged high inflation.
But no one knows how big that risk is at the moment.
Ultimately, it depends on what Trump wants from the war. How long will he continue?
The economic situation is not yet that serious, according to him.
Sure, it could be:
- But so far it is far from the deep crises we have seen before.
