According to a new report from ESO, the Expert Group for Public Finance, Sweden's criminal economy is estimated to have a turnover of 352 billion SEK. This corresponds to 5.5 percent of GDP.
Previous estimates have been 100–150 billion per year.
What is worrying is that this permeates the entire society, all industries, Lundh says.
The profits in the criminal economy are estimated to amount to 185 billion SEK annually.
Not unique
Previous assessments are believed to have underestimated the breadth and economic weight of the criminal economy.
There is no increase over time, but this is more extensive because we have collected more material than before, says criminology professor Amir Rostami.
He states that the size of the criminal economy in Sweden is not unique in Europe, but it affects the state more, since the public sector is large.
The report divides the criminal economy into four sectors: the black economy, the illegal economy, criminal transactions and services between criminals, such as money laundering.
Drug trafficking, arms smuggling, theft in commerce, counterfeiting of goods and other activities in the "illegal economy" are estimated to generate an annual profit of SEK 41 billion.
Illegal work
By far the largest is the "black economy". It mainly includes undeclared work and tax and social security evasion. The sector is estimated to generate profits of 96 billion per year, of which undeclared work accounts for 60 billion.
Fraud (including against the state, the EU and private individuals) is included in "criminal transactions", with profits of 39 billion SEK.
All figures are average values within an assessment range.
They are the most reliable we have so far, Rostami says.
The estimates are conservative, so the numbers are likely higher, Rostami says.
The greatest socio-economic damage is assessed to be caused by workplace crime, tax evasion, benefit fraud and other system-exploiting activities.
Close gaps
The report notes that economic crime is difficult to combat with repressive measures alone. Therefore, a more system-oriented criminal policy is needed.
Petra Lundh agrees.
- We can prosecute as many as we want; new ones just keep coming in. We have to close all the gaps, shortcomings and vulnerabilities that exist in society.
Peter Wallberg/TT
Facts: Sweden's criminal economy
TT
Annual profit: 185 billion SEK, of which:
undeclared work 60 billion
tax evasion 35 billion
counterfeits (goods, food): 20 billion
fraud against the EU 16 billion
contribution violations: 10 billion
Organized property crime: 9 billion
money laundering 9 billion
fraud against companies 7 billion
fraud against individuals 6 billion
illegal drugs and pharmaceuticals 4 billion
cybercrime 3 billion
environmental crime 2 billion
manipulation of sports and games: 700 million
intoxicants: 500 million
human trafficking 500 million SEK
arms smuggling 52 million
Footnote: The figures (in 2024 constant prices) are point estimates within an assessment interval, rounded to billions of SEK.
Source: ESO
