Better harvests in South America and decreased demand mean that the world is heading towards a cocoa surplus.
Production is expected to exceed consumption by about 186,000 tonnes during the 2025-2026 season, which would contribute to replenishing the global stocks that have been depleted after several poor harvests in West Africa.
Prices are expected to fall in the short and medium term, according to Oran van Dort, analyst at Rabobank. Contributing factors to falling prices are partly that consumers are buying less chocolate, partly that chocolate manufacturers are changing their recipes and also that there are prospects for better harvests.
