Sweden currently has very low inflationary pressure, 0.8 percent in April according to the CPIF measure. Traditionally, producer prices and inflation tend to follow each other. If producer prices rise, inflation often follows the same path.
In April, producer prices also rose by 1.1 percent and compared to April 2025, the increase was a full 4.7 percent, the highest annual rate since 2023.
The explanation is linked to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where a blockade of oil shipments has contributed to rising oil prices. This in turn affects a number of other product groups, Statistics Sweden (SCB) says in connection with the release of the statistics.
Producer prices are one of the indicators that we have talked about that we should look at when trying to understand whether this could lead to inflation at the consumer level. It is, so to speak, the step before it reaches consumers, Thedéen points out.
Two scenarios
Rising producer prices can mean two scenarios:
Either companies can pass on the higher costs to consumers, where households have to bear the cost, i.e. higher inflation.
Alternatively, consumer demand is so low due to weak economic conditions and high unemployment that many companies have to bear some of the costs themselves in the form of lower operating margins.
Of course it goes through profit margins, Thedéen says about what is desirable from the Swedish Central Bank's side, but he points out:
- It is obvious that it is not the Swedish Central Bank that decides this, but rather it is determined, among other things, by our tools. We now have a relatively low resource utilization, so it is not at all certain that it will spread from the producer level to the consumer level, but we simply have to study that.
A warning
However, Handelsbanken's chief economist Christina Nyman wants to issue a warning based on how long the war in the Middle East could last:
If the war in Iran continues so that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, then this will increasingly spread to the consumer level, she says.
