Why oil prices aren't at record levels yet

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Why oil prices aren't at record levels yet
Photo: Hasan Jamali/AP/TT

The waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil normally passes, was blocked when the war broke out on February 28. Before the war, the futures price of oil was around $70 per barrel.

After some yo-yoing in trading, a barrel of North Sea oil now costs just over $93.

“More than three months into this conflict, the world has proven surprisingly resilient,” said Maria Angelicoussis, CEO of the major Greek shipping company Angelicoussis, this week.

The historical record for North Sea oil, $147.50 per barrel, was set on July 3, 2008 - but that is still a long way off.

Increased US exports

One explanation is that demand has slowed in China, the world's largest crude oil importer. In May, the country imported 40 percent less oil than the average monthly figure last year.

This is partly because Beijing has stopped expanding its gigantic strategic oil reserves. China has also started producing fuels from coal rather than oil, and more electric vehicles are also reducing gasoline and diesel consumption in the country.

At the same time, the United States has emerged as a supplier. The country's exports of crude oil and fuel in May were more than 2 million barrels per day higher than the average last year.

Additionally, oil from Venezuela has become more globally available since the start of the year.

One way for the White House to stabilize supply is to temporarily lift sanctions against Russian oil.

Several of the oil-producing countries around the Persian Gulf have also managed to find export routes beyond the war zone.

Shrinkage of oil buffers

Furthermore, countries around the world have coordinated a historic release of strategic oil reserves.

But it is a temporary relief. Global inventories are declining at a record pace, making the market vulnerable to new disruptions.

In the United States, total oil inventories shrank last week to the lowest level in more than two decades.

"In the coming months, to put it mildly, you will really be staring at a system that may lack flexibility because the buffers have been significantly depleted," says Greg Sharenow, head of commodity portfolios at investment firm Pacific Investment Management.

Facts: Strait of Hormuz

The strait between Iran and Oman is 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point.

Iran and Oman have territorial waters in the strait, but it is covered by the right of transit passage under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It is important for crude oil transport from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, as it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The majority of oil shipments go to countries in Asia.

Source: NE, AP

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By TT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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