It is from a Swedish perspective primarily the sawmills that take the customs blow.
Right now, we see before us that it can get worse before it gets better, at least over the winter and until spring, says Christian Nielsen.
According to Donald Trump's decree from Monday evening, the customs duty on Swedish timber sent to the USA will be increased from zero to ten percent on October 14.
Pressed profitability
Nielsen describes the profitability as pressed in the entire forest industry. This has led to action packages and cutbacks in several places in the sector. And before the customs decision, there were hopes that the USA could be a locomotive to get the market going.
The purpose, according to Trump, is that the sectoral customs duties on timber should "strengthen supply chains, promote industrial resilience, create high-quality jobs, and increase domestic capacity utilization for timber".
According to Skogsindustrierna, approximately 41,000 people are directly employed in the forest industry in Sweden. If you add indirect jobs created due to the activities in the industry - such as transport and subcontractors - the figure is 138,000 employed.
EU agreement protects against increases
In addition to timber, slightly higher customs duties on certain wooden furniture and kitchen and bathroom cabinets were also included, which will be increased to 50 percent at the turn of the year, according to Trump's presidential order.
But there, the EU's customs ceiling in the agreement with the Trump administration from August at 15 percent will protect European companies. Other major economies that have made agreements with the USA on customs duties - such as the United Kingdom and Japan - also have a ceiling that protects.
Sweden's timber exports to the USA in 2024 amounted to a value of 316.2 million dollars, which corresponded to just over 4 percent of the USA's total import of timber that year, according to American statistics. Sweden is, with this, the third-largest timber exporter on the American market after Canada and Germany.
Trump refers to national security when he motivates the timber customs duties, which are legally the same type of so-called sectoral customs duties that have already been introduced on imports of copper, steel, aluminum, and cars.
Sources: Bloomberg, Skogsindustrierna
