US pressure on Iran -
Photo: Alex Brandon/AP/TT

US pressure on Iran - why Trump can escalate

Time and again, Trump has issued ultimatums to Iran, increasing the risk of further escalation. The biggest lesson is that states often escalate to war when their stated goals are not achieved, Anders Persson, a Middle East expert, told TT.

Hell will "break loose", "the damn strait" will open and "an entire civilization will die tonight".

Donald Trump's posts reek of profanity, and the war has not developed as the US and Israel had hoped.

No regime change and no clear military victory. Then escalation is an alternative, something that all research and experience also show, says Anders Persson, senior lecturer in political science at Linnaeus University in Växjö.

Eleventh hour bid?

Another scenario is that a mediation attempt is actually successful.

We have seen a number of such attempts before, from Pakistan and Turkey, among others, says Anders Persson.

A third path is for Russia and China to offer Trump a “stepping stone” to end the war.

"It may not be that likely, but it has happened before. Maybe there will be an eleventh-hour bid from these countries, either separately or together," says Anders Persson.

The clock is ticking

But as is so often the case with the US president, it is difficult to know how he intends to act, Anders Persson emphasizes.

Perhaps this time he will "kick the can in front of him," as they say in American political language, that is, postpone the deadline once again.

With the deadline - which expires on Wednesday night, local time in Sweden - Trump wants to make a deal with Iran. Otherwise, he has threatened to bomb the country “back to the Stone Age.”

And while the clock is ticking, the attacks in Iran continue. On Tuesday, there were reports of explosions at bridges, railways and on the important oil island of Kharg.

In this story
AuthorTT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers
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