The conflict in the Middle East has had immediate consequences for the global travel industry in a way not experienced since the outbreak of the pandemic.
In addition to stranded travelers in, for example, Dubai, it has affected those who used the Middle East as a transit point on trips between Europe and Asia, with thousands of flights canceled.
Few people are likely to be tempted to travel to a war zone or troubled areas, but the impact on travel patterns has historically been less than one might think, says Robert Pettersson, researcher at Mid Sweden University's tourism research institute Etour.
"People's memories are quite short and there is a fairly rapid recovery. Social disruptions sink back into consciousness quickly after media exposure subsides," he says.
In recent decades, there have been several examples where tourism has been affected. One of the most obvious is the September 11 attacks, when tourism growth was affected, especially in the United States.
Recovering
Further examples are the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and Brussels in 2016.
A study conducted by the World Travel & Tourism Council shows that on average it takes about 13 months for tourism to recover for a specific city or country. However, overall travel is not affected to the same degree.
"We are not willing to give up that expense item, regardless of the economic situation or climate change. If we look at Swedish households, we can see historically that the amount spent on travel has remained fairly stable."
In some cases, such as the tsunami in Southeast Asia in 2004, it can also have unexpected effects, recalls Lottie Knutson, then communications director at Fritidsresor.
"There was, surprisingly, a small 'opposite effect' where Swedes' loyalty to Thailand and to the country as a travel destination only increased," she tells TT.
Not common
The Middle East is not a common summer travel destination for Swedes. However, climate effects can also influence Swedish travel patterns, both experts believe, as they see nearby destinations becoming more popular.
"Perhaps shifts towards areas that are relatively cooler but still safe, such as the coast of northern Germany or, why not, Poland?" he predicts.
Lottie Knutson simultaneously highlights Eastern Europe as an alternative, especially from one aspect:
"When weighing up political and ethical stances, environment versus economy, it is often how much I get for my vacation money that decides."
