The Tidö parties (M, SD, KD and L) together receive 43.9 percent of the vote, while the opposition (S, MP, C and V) ends up with 53.9 percent.
Calculated in terms of parliamentary seats, the situation looks even more favourable for the opposition - 196 against 153. This is because the Liberals fall below the parliamentary threshold in the poll and do not receive any seats at all.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) is not worried.
"Measurements are measurements and it's election day that counts. Last election we were behind in all measurements including on election day but we won. It will go up and down, we are experienced," he says.
The Liberals are on 1.9 percent.
It is serious, because the alternative is that we could wake up after September 13 and have the most left-leaning government ever, says L:s party leader Simona Mohamsson.
But we are good at sprinting and have been outmatched before.
“Mobilize the couch potatoes”
The Sweden Democrats' party leader Jimmie Åkesson also points out that there are four weeks left until the election, and that the Tidö parties are starting to catch up in other polls.
"I think the decisive factor will be how we manage to mobilize the couch potatoes, we did very well with that last time, and whether we manage to attract voters from the other bloc, which we also managed to do at the last moment in the last election," he says.
V-leader Nooshi Dadgostar notes that the gap between the left and right blocs is very large.
This looks increasingly like a choice between the Left Party and the Center Party. Whether the new government should be dominated by the Left Party and a left-leaning policy or continue to be more of a right-wing government, she says.
Ice in the stomach
Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, downplays the significance of the latest survey.
"It's all about staying calm. There will be a series of surveys leading up to the election and it's only when we have more that we can say anything," says Ekengren Oscarsson.
According to him, there is often a lull in opinion during the summer and it is expected that there have been no major changes since June.
Many voters are probably excited now that digital voting cards are coming, and those who don't follow politics all the time now want to get involved in it.
In the latest survey, the Center Party shows a clear rise, increasing from 5.4 percent in June to 8 percent in August, while the changes for other parties are marginal.
We'll see if it holds up when more measurements come in, says Ekengren Oscarsson.
Verian's voter barometer is based on approximately 3,000 interviews with people in the Sifo panel - a panel recruited via random nationally representative samples.
The question asked is: “Which party would you vote for if there were an election today?”
The voter barometer was conducted from August 3 to 16, 2026.
